View Full Version : Predict the future
bollecks
05-04-2006, 17:51
I thought it might be fun if everyone had their stab at predicting the future of HD formats. Assuming the thread doesn't drop off the bottom we can laugh at one another in years to come...
Here's my go:
(1) 2006 Both formats are released to widespread indiffernece
(2) Even the first generation of processing chips work with both formats. Dual format blue lasers will follow soon and dual format drives will become standard by the end of 2007.
(3) As drives are based upon the same basic 12cm disk technology that's been around for years, prices of dual format PC drives will drop quickly to below £70. Dual format players will be below £150 by mid 2008. Big names will be forced into making dual format players by a glut of cheap players from China
(4) Lack of reigon coding will make HD-DVD popular with importers.
(5) Over time, 99% of players will be dual format. Most people won't even know what format disk they are buying. The only difference is that every consumer will be paying a few dollars extra in patent charges every time they buy a player to keep everyone happy
(6) With very little difference in content it will be down to personal taste whether film companies use blu-ray or HD-DVD.
(7) Because a dual format hi-def player will only cost a few dollars more than a DVD drive/player within 2/3 years and will be standard in all new pcs the formats will take off. People will buy hi-def players to go with their hi-def tvs and hi def disks will have replaced superseeded DVDs within 7-9 years.
(8) People talk about this as a VHS vs Beta battle but it isn't. You could never build a machine that played both tapes and early VCRs cost £1500+ in todays money.
Now lets hope someone else is prepared to have a go!
Shaun666
05-04-2006, 18:05
Here goes: High Def DVD launches Autumn 2006.
Meteor strikes Earth in 2007. Everybody dead by 2008
Oh dear !
Holden Caulfield
19-04-2006, 07:06
.... not to mention the great bird flu epidemic of 2007.
I reckon you've got it pretty much on the nail, with the caveat that unless dual format players become the norm both formats will die the death of niche players. As I've said before, if I had a BD-only player and then my favourite film only came out on HD-DVD, I would not be very happy.
As I've said before, if I had a BD-only player and then my favourite film only came out on HD-DVD, I would not be very happy.
Me either. But the chances are pretty slim and when Universal cave in, that will be the end of the problem
An article in this months Home Cinema Choice magazine suggests that the best way for HD to succeed in disc format is for there NOT to be dual format machines.
I was surprised by this argument, but it goes like this.....
If there is only one format players, then consumers get to make a choice (eg VHS V'S Beta debate) and there is usually one winner. If there is a choice then people are confused, retailers refuse to stock two or three formats and the customers stay away (eg the DVD-A and SACD war).
I am wary of the choices available and I will wait. I consider myself an early adopter, buying one of the first DVD players and more aware than the average punter - however, I think I will be enjoying my HD on Sky for the forseeable and leaving the purchase of an HD player/recorder until one of the formats 'crushes' the other.
I agree with that Banus, to a degree. I've thought for a long time that it would be in everyone's best interests to get behind the best format and/or the one most likely to win. Since that's Blu-ray and they're so close to being completely dominant I would have hoped that more people would have had the sense do what they could to kill off HD DVD and then we can really get started.
Grandmaster
22-04-2006, 13:59
Since that's Blu-ray and they're so close to being completely dominant...
Aside from costing twice as much as the competition you mean? The fact is that both formats have their advantages and disadvantages and the comparison to DVD-A and SACD is more than relevant.
thescrounger
22-04-2006, 14:46
Me either. But the chances are pretty slim and when Universal cave in, that will be the end of the problem
It's likely to be the other way around. Who wants to by a Bluray player for $1000 when they can buy and HD-DVD player for $500? Not to mention the region free angle. The truth is your averge punter will not notice a quality difference and buy whats cheaper and more familiar. People will remember minidisc as a recording format that was better but never really captured a mainstream market.
bullybullair
22-04-2006, 21:26
If HDDVD can pull its finger out and get their players out worldwide,then Blu-Ray will have an uphill struggle.
The masses won't even look at a $1000 player when there's an option for one at half the price that offers the same.
HDDVD delays could see the arrival of the PS3 to get BR in to homes.
And the movie companies won't sit back waiting for BR while HDDVD discs are selling.
Unless BR players drop in price,success for Sony's format could depend entirely on PS3 sales,and with that touted at £400,thats a slow burner too
thescrounger
22-04-2006, 21:39
The way I see it is that I can buy 2 HD-DVD players for the price of one BR player. I've sort of gotten use to buying a DVD and being able to play it in any room of the house. Expensive HD tech is going to limit that luxury.
bollecks
23-04-2006, 21:00
An article in this months Home Cinema Choice magazine suggests that the best way for HD to succeed in disc format is for there NOT to be dual format machines.
I was surprised by this argument, but it goes like this.....
If there is only one format players, then consumers get to make a choice (eg VHS V'S Beta debate) and there is usually one winner. If there is a choice then people are confused, retailers refuse to stock two or three formats and the customers stay away (eg the DVD-A and SACD war).
I am wary of the choices available and I will wait. I consider myself an early adopter, buying one of the first DVD players and more aware than the average punter - however, I think I will be enjoying my HD on Sky for the forseeable and leaving the purchase of an HD player/recorder until one of the formats 'crushes' the other.
I saw that article. The perspective seemed very wierd because the guy goes on about how dual format players ruined the SACD/DVDA war by making it impossible to win. And there was me thinking that it was because disks cost £15, you can't make compilations and 95% of the public listen to their music on systems that have plastic speakers standing on bookshelves with spider plants standing on top.
thescrounger
24-04-2006, 11:20
It's a fair point, dual format players will prolong the format war. I don't particularly want to be buying films on both formats anyway.
ShakeyJake
24-04-2006, 11:37
DVD-R and DVD+R live quite happily alongside each other, if the players play both formats there's no reason why both of them can't survive. Personally I don't think consumers are really going to be that fussed either way, apart from Blu-Ray's greater storage (which might help it's popularity in computing circles) neither of them have any real advantages over the other.
Piracy is always a factor so the pirates may favour the HD-DVD because of it's smaller size? That could well help it getting into a few households.
there was also some comment in HCC that HD-DVD technology was being given to the chinese to flood the market and push that format to the fore. Personally I would prefer on e format rather than the choice. The argument with DVD-r and DVD+r is slightly different as this did not mean the stocking of two different formats for retail films.
Although I don't have that much faith that one is much better than the other, I would hang my hat on HD-DVD, I mean Sony are not the champions of proprietary formats are they?
Saying that, maybe it could be their moment to break the market :shrug:
Just had a flashback moment, remembering the first time I saw a black PS1 game disc - pretty cool! :thumbs:
Although I don't have that much faith that one is much better than the other, I would hang my hat on HD-DVD, I mean Sony are not the champions of proprietary formats are they?
Oh God! You've just gone and done the Camaj equivalent of saying Candyman three times in a mirror. :cry:
Oh God! You've just gone and done the Camaj equivalent of saying Candyman three times in a mirror. :cry:
:thumbs: I aim to please!
Oh God! You've just gone and done the Camaj equivalent of saying Candyman three times in a mirror. :cry:
:lol:
The propriatory format argument is one of the weakest I've heard
thescrounger
26-04-2006, 11:10
:lol:
The propriatory format argument is one of the weakest I've heard
Tell that to the movie studios. ;)
:lol:
The propriatory format argument is one of the weakest I've heard
I would say that betting on a format that Sony are pushing is even weaker!
:lol:
Personally, I would leave my options open and not be championing any individual format at this very early stage - to say that BluRay is going to be the "winning" or "dominating" format is well, a tad premature! :lol:
I work in the DVD media replication and mastering industry and at this stage, none of our big replicators or production studios are pinning their flags to either mast.
Isn't it 5 times in front of the mirror?
I am not so naive that I do not understand where camaj is coming from, Sony are a high profile company with a widely respected name but I just do not see things as over already for HD-DVD.
Whatever happens, it will be an expensive time for us!
Speaking as an ill-informed consumer who finds it difficult to get worked up about such things, I'd have thought HD DVD would win hands down just by the name.
Blu-Ray - What the ****'s a blue ray? Sounds like some sort of computer thing or a weird sort of fish. Either way, I wouldn't be spending my Ocean Finance <i>'...and once he'd consolodated all his loans, there was still enough left over to pay for a little treat'</i> money on in.
HD DVD - I know what DVD is and High Definition sounds like the buzz word for the next couple of years - it's already plastered all over Currys ;)
bollecks
09-05-2006, 10:35
I must confess I'm a touch dissapointed at how this thread has turned out.
I was hoping people would be bold and make predictions that could make us look stupid in years to come...
bollecks - here's my shot then: both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will ultimately fail and be confined to a specialist only segment. When the world is ready for HD, then I'm sure some bigger disc will be available that won't have the (by then cracked) content protection system, and instead have an even nastier one! Despite the numerous claims of 'the whole world will be networked' I still think people want (and will want) a physical product to show for their money, so a personal copy format (whether it be disc based or not) seems more realistic to me.
bruceames
10-05-2006, 14:13
HD DVD availability will spur HDTV sales, which in turn will sell even more players as Toshiba continues to fail to meet demand. Sony's Bluray player debuts in late July, but only the richest of early adoptors splurge, as everyone else waits for ps3 to come out a mere 4 months later at half the price. This results in players being next to impossible to find. Meanwhile HD DVD sales continue to grow exponentially as other brands emerge to help Toshiba out. By the end of the year all studios except Sony release HD DVD titles, with Universal continuing not to issue Bluray. By January, HD DVD sales are 85% off all HD DVD sales and 30% of all DVD sales. By next april Sony debuts the first combo player, followed by others. The price eventally falls low enough to Save Bluray, which gains steam in the long run (about 5 years) as the industry standard (due to the future need for larger capacity)
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