It will serve them right [Archive]

dco_chris

11-08-2006, 17:00

I wouldn't be surprised if this did happen. The reasons to upgrade are less than compelling unless you have a large HD set and are bothered about having as sharp a picture as possible, and given how many people seem to be not at all bothered about watching DVDs in the wrong ratio, through composite cables, etc, I would expect the uptake to be slow. It could play out like the multichannel audio formats, a good idea but not a big enough improvement for the average customer to justify the expense.

chachi

11-08-2006, 17:21

And the quality of the Oppo, Denon and a few others with upscaling present DVDs does not help either ...

DeadKenny

12-08-2006, 22:04

thescrounger

12-08-2006, 23:54

And with normal DVDs being a few quid cheaper on the same shelf, even less people will buy into it.

Grandmaster

13-08-2006, 08:52

I think there will be a winner, but it will not be for some years. I've said it before but DVD is just *too* good, maximising picture quality and convenience for today's technology and still looking perfectly good on high-end flat panels and in progressive scan.

Eventually HD will take over, but I seriously think that whichever format does the following will gradually take over as the successor to DVD:

1. Backwards compatibility - I have a DVD player in my bedroom and I want a high-end player in my lounge. But I do not under any circumstances want to buy the same movie twice, nor would I want to have to spend oodles of cash on an HD player for my bedroom because it's simply not worth it. HD-DVD has the right idea here with the combo disks but multiformat disks should be mandatory - not an option. An alternative is simply to bundle both disks in one package. DVD duplication is now so cheap that there is NO reason why this should not happen.

2. Cheapo Chinese Players - whoever gets their chipset mass produced in the Far East will have an immeasurable advantage over the opposition.

Spectre07

14-08-2006, 12:44

The way it's going at the moment I can see this ending up like SACD/DVD-A. Not dead, but dead enough that no one cares (a shame because they are much better than CD).

I'm thinking it's more likely a successor to both formats will come along that will win (e.g. HVD)I agree with you.

DVD will obviously be superceeded by another format but I don't think it'll be BR/HDDVD, I think it's come at least 10 years too soon. Your average punter isn't going to be able to appreciate the difference between SD or HD discs and from personal experience, where they can see a difference they won't care enough to upgrade. HD playback only matters to technophiles, for most people DVD playback is fine.

thescrounger

14-08-2006, 14:25

I think with HD there will be a situation where people like watching sports in HD, but aren't so bothered with TV and film. At least, not bothered enough to replace their 5 year collection on DVD. That's the issue really.

Tempest

14-08-2006, 16:40

This is why I think

IMHO

They need to release HD and SD versions of a film "ON THE SAME DISK"

So that, people will (by default) end up with loads of HD movies even without knowing/wanting it.

If you know you have a lot of HD discs in your collection, then, when you need to (or feel the need) to upgrade your player, you will enjoy all the benifits without having to re-buy all the recent DVD's you've just bought.

DeadKenny

14-08-2006, 16:51

The crazy thing is they had a chance to do the same kind of thing with SACD and sneak SACD on all new CDs, but for some reason they didn't.

Or maybe it's Sony's excessive licence fees that put them off ;)

Spectre07

14-08-2006, 17:01

The thing is the companies want a return on all the money they've invested in developing and producing the new format. The only way that'll happen is if the new format is adopted in it's own right on a mass market scale.

Tempest

14-08-2006, 19:12

Apart from the odd person here and there (and remember we are not a true representation of the buying public)

DVD is not bad enough to be replaced really.

Take Mrs Average and her 3 kids and show them Monsters inc on a 32" LCD telly.

Then show them Monsters inc in HD on a 32" LCD telly.

Somehow, I think your not going to get a WOW, it's so amazing the new version, it soo much better than the normal version.

If we buy it or not does not matter.

She has to want to buy it and there are millions of She's out there.

VHS was terrible, rewinding tapes, quality rubbish (by DVD standards) Big, could not find bits without writing down tape counter numbers.
And yet, look how long that lasted, and way into years of DVD's being out, just due to cost of players and people's VHS collections.

It was just the flood of movies and cheap players, plus I guess the very gradual realisation of how much nicer a format it was (the front end where you can jump to bits)

Perhaps it's me, but I still don't think Manufacturors, even today understand this.

If you have 2 formats, and one will win (if we assume) then it needs to be a fight.
It's no good both formats just sitting high up like gods.

You need a (I hate to say it) an Amstrad or Matsui, or some cheap maker, to pump out unit's that WORK. May not be flash, but they work and they are cheap.
Once the flood gates are open, the Big players suddenly realise they can't act all high and mighty, they bring out cheaper players and we're off.

Just wonder how it will pan out this time

Or will we still be here in a years time wondering the same?

Spectre07

14-08-2006, 22:18

We won't get cheap HD/BR players. We only got cheap DVD players when hundred's of thousands of more expensive players and discs in the millions started to sell. There simply won't be the same demand for the new format, it'll fill a niche and players will remain relatively expensive.

pompeyfan

14-08-2006, 22:47

Tempest

14-08-2006, 23:19

Yep I agree - DVD only really took off when Sub £200 dvd players like the Wharfedale 750 came out in Tesco's and DVD's dropped in price to around VHS levels - thats certainly when I started on the DVD ladder (in 2000) having looked at DVD players for around a year before but couldn't justify £350+ on a player and £25+ on a DVD however much better it was.

Nowdays I have a HD ready LCD TV but SD DVD's look amazing on it so I've no desire to upgrade to a HD player untill sub £100 players come out and HD DVD's hit SD DVD price points.

Yup, you and me both.

My 1st DVD Player was a £99 Dansai one talked about in the Bargain Forum a few years ago.

Looks like we may be in for a longer wait this time :(

xraystan

15-08-2006, 08:50

Personally I think the new formats will be like laserdisc. People who are "in the know" will know that the new formats are better than current formats, but only the people with money to burn will buy into it.
The only way I can see it going mainstream is if High Def is really successful in broadcasting, we might, just might get people interested in buying the new format discs. They will see Jack Bauer doing what he does in High Def and want to experience it again exactly as they watched it on TV. I think someone else has already mentioned this in another thread, but TV boxsets will probably be the media that pushes the new formats, just for the reason I've outlined above.

KRW

15-08-2006, 09:59

As with any new technology, it probably won't get much of a push until porn appears on it in bulk. First multi-angle thing I saw was courtesy of Vivid.

I am still amazed at the picture on some DVD's (Seinfeld looks better than it did on broadcast) but I dont think HD is going to make me want to spend £100's more so that I can see all the sweat beads on Jack Bauers forehead.

James45

15-08-2006, 10:11

Personally I think the new formats will be like laserdisc. People who are "in the know" will know that the new formats are better than current formats

Why, when it's being displayed correctly (shock horror) in every comet and shopping centre in the country? I saw on 50" LG plasma in Bluewater at the weekend for £2,200 displaying an HD trailer of Cars that made me drool. When the market is saturated with HD sets then HD source material will take off in the mainstream, although it will never do so to the extent DVD has for two reasons; 1, SD DVD is good enough for 80% of the population and 2, those people don't want to splash out on a new format.

xraystan

15-08-2006, 10:34

Why, when it's being displayed correctly (shock horror) in every comet and shopping centre in the country? I saw on 50" LG plasma in Bluewater at the weekend for £2,200 displaying an HD trailer of Cars that made me drool. When the market is saturated with HD sets then HD source material will take off in the mainstream, although it will never do so to the extent DVD has for two reasons; 1, SD DVD is good enough for 80% of the population and 2, those people don't want to splash out on a new format.

Lets face it, though your averge Jane and Joe public who shops at places like Comet, Currys, John Lewis, etc.. will see the image and will think it's just down to the display, and not that they also need a proper HD source too.

SimonI

15-08-2006, 11:33

Why, when it's being displayed correctly (shock horror) in every comet and shopping centre in the country? I saw on 50" LG plasma in Bluewater at the weekend for £2,200 displaying an HD trailer of Cars that made me drool. Agreed - I saw a Sony 46" HD LCD on display at the weekend, playing some HD demo material off a PC; next to it was a 32" LCD set playing SD broadcast material. Apart from the fact that the difference between the two was startling (and OK, the SD might not have had a good feed), the sheer clarity and richness of the HD display was stopping people in their tracks. I couldn't imagine Joe Public resisting for long once prices for HD kit are lower; once that happens, some sort of HD feed will have to follow.

Of course, that's my interpretation and I'm obviously hoping to be right and that one or other of the HD disk formats comes to the fore... ;)

DeadKenny

15-08-2006, 12:29

Lets face it, though your averge Jane and Joe public who shops at places like Comet, Currys, John Lewis, etc.. will see the image and will think it's just down to the display, and not that they also need a proper HD source too.
Indeed.

Drool all they like over the top of the range demo models, they'll then go and buy a Goodmans or Bush display which negates any benefit of HD anyway ;) (and probably promptly hook it up with composite connectors :D).

Spectre07

15-08-2006, 14:05

Why, when it's being displayed correctly (shock horror) in every comet and shopping centre in the country?I doubt that will happen you might find some of the bigger/higher profile stores, like the one you saw in Blue Water getting things right but I'd be surprised if every Comet/Curry's/Curry's Dixons etc get it right.

I first saw DVD demonstrated in Curry's and Dixons and in both stores it just sat there, no explanation of what it was and when I asked staff they didn't seem to know much (they kept calling them digital video discs) I wasn't that impressed with it. I walked away. This was following weeks of reading HI-Fi magazines extolling the virtues of the new digital media. I could see the picture was better than VHS but other than that it didn't really register as impressive. It wasn't until I went into a specialist HI Fi store where it was properly set up with the surround sound etc that it really blew me away, I have to admit it was the sound rather than the improved picture quality that made me want to buy one. I bought my first DVD player within a month of that demo.

thescrounger

15-08-2006, 16:51

There is also the issue that some people won't be interested in upgrading until HD recorders are available.

KRW

15-08-2006, 19:52

Why, when it's being displayed correctly (shock horror) in every comet and shopping centre in the country? I saw on 50" LG plasma in Bluewater at the weekend for £2,200 displaying an HD trailer of Cars that made me drool. When the market is saturated with HD sets then HD source material will take off in the mainstream, although it will never do so to the extent DVD has for two reasons; 1, SD DVD is good enough for 80% of the population and 2, those people don't want to splash out on a new format.

Funnily enough, I saw one today in Curries and my reaction was meh, to be honest. It's sharp but it didn't make me think 'WOW' like DVD did. Thing is, if it doesn't take off wildly over the next 12-18 months, how long will those displays last for?

thescrounger

15-08-2006, 19:56

HD will take off, the issue here is about whether an HD disc format will take off.

hunts1uk

15-08-2006, 20:09

And the quality of the Oppo, Denon and a few others with upscaling present DVDs does not help either ...

The Toshiba HDDVD player blows these SD players away,even upscaling R1 disks.

This is why I think

IMHO

They need to release HD and SD versions of a film "ON THE SAME DISK"

So that, people will (by default) end up with loads of HD movies even without knowing/wanting it.

If you know you have a lot of HD discs in your collection, then, when you need to (or feel the need) to upgrade your player, you will enjoy all the benifits without having to re-buy all the recent DVD's you've just bought.

Some HD disks do already have both.

Direct Link (http://www.thedvdforums.com/jump2.php?url=http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000E5KJF2/thedvdforums-20)

I wouldn't be to quick to critices HDDVD until you've viewed it,have a read on avforums to see the amount of people who are already importing these players. ;)

Spectre07

15-08-2006, 22:33

I wouldn't be to quick to critices HDDVD until you've viewed it,have a read on avforums to see the amount of people who are already importing these players. ;)That doesn't mean a thing. What would be noteworthy is if people who don't know what the initials AV meant started importing them. If collegues at work or people in my local started telling me about their imported HDDVD players then I'd be thinking something significant is happening.

hunts1uk

16-08-2006, 01:28

That doesn't mean a thing. What would be noteworthy is if people who don't know what the initials AV meant started importing them. If collegues at work or people in my local started telling me about their imported HDDVD players then I'd be thinking something significant is happening.

Well the sales of HDDVD player have gone crazy in the states. :) I can see the same happening in the UK if Toshiba get the price right.

hunts1uk

16-08-2006, 01:30

That doesn't mean a thing. What would be noteworthy is if people who don't know what the initials AV meant started importing them. If collegues at work or people in my local started telling me about their imported HDDVD players then I'd be thinking something significant is happening.

Couldn't the same for DVD be said when it first hit our shores?

KRW

16-08-2006, 08:25

Couldn't the same for DVD be said when it first hit our shores?

It could. I worked in a video shop when DVD first came out and that was very interesting. You'd get a few coming in going on about their new DVD players and mocking our fledgling R2 shelf. It was like that for about 18 months before the cheap players (I mean £299 cheap players) started arriving and then it was a different story, especially when the store started offering players on the never-never. Thats when I saw it really take off.

I think we're going to end up with DVD as the new VHS. People will watch stuff in HD, but DVD will still do the job for most people as a record/playback medium. VHS was tolerated for years and that was nowhere near as convenient as DVD, and DVD is cheaper and more disposable now than VHS ever was.

xraystan

16-08-2006, 08:29

Well the sales of HDDVD player have gone crazy in the states. :) I can see the same happening in the UK if Toshiba get the price right.

But you also have to remember that the USA have had High Def broadcasts for a good few years now, so the chance to have your favourite TV shows to own and watch again and again is a big seller. So as soon as that technology becomes available they will sell a fair few units.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have broadcast High Def and a High Def play and they discs to go with it, as I have the display but no High Def inputs. However, unlike others, I'm not wetting myself in anticipation.

PS I have seen some HD on my screen, streamed from my PC and it looked brilliant. The sky HD stuff I've seen in John Lewis also looked pretty good.

Spectre07

16-08-2006, 14:55

Couldn't the same for DVD be said when it first hit our shores?Undoubtedly, but you're missing the point. People on AV forums importing HD players is as relevant as Party Supporters cheering their leader at a party conference. You're preaching to the converted.

I think we're going to end up with DVD as the new VHS. DVD took off because VHS had had it's day and DVD's time had come. It was the right medium at the right time. BR and HDDVD has arrived too early, doesn't offer enough over DVD to justify the switch. I think HD Discs will be the new laserdisc.

VHS was tolerated for years and that was nowhere near as convenient as DVD, and DVD is cheaper and more disposable now than VHS ever was.That's why I think DVD will be just as tenacious as VHS was in it's day. You have a HD discs which will more expensive offering more detailed pictures versus the ubiquity, cheapness and convenience of DVD. I really don't think improved PQ is enough to coax the majority of people away from DVD.

DK_UK

16-08-2006, 21:05

Well my Dad has only just purchased his first DVD Recorder, and only because the VHS machine packed in.

So thats going to do him for another 5 years I imagine (or until that packs in).

Spectre07

16-08-2006, 22:19

I've had my video recorder for 12 yrs and it's still going strong.

kiran_mk2

17-08-2006, 01:34

Unfortunately stuff these days isn't built to last like it was in the 80s/early 90s.

hunts1uk

17-08-2006, 08:54

Unfortunately stuff these days isn't built to last like it was in the 80s/early 90s.

So you haven't seen the new Tosh HDDVD players then?

S1515

17-08-2006, 09:11

So you haven't seen the new Tosh HDDVD players then?

:lol:

hunts1uk

17-08-2006, 09:19

:lol:

I take it you have? ;)

hunts1uk

20-08-2006, 15:00

http://avzombie.com/blog/2006/08/08/hd-dvd-population-now-in-the-tens-of-thouands/

Toshiba says that the HD DVD player population is now in the “tens of thousands.” Claiming that take-up is higher than with the introduction of DVD over the same time period in 1997, Warner Home Video’s Steve Nickerson believes that Hollywood Studios can now build an HD DVD software business around the owners of consumer electronics products alone, without factoring in additional sales to users of compatible PC or games equipment.
It’s precited that there will be upwards of 150 HD DVD titles available by the end of the year. The lions share of these will come from Warner and Universal.
While Toshiba has yet to release actual hardware sales figures, its VP of digital and AV marketing Jodi Sally says that the cheaper of the two players, the HD-A1, is outselling the higher-specification HD-XA1 by 5 to 1. This is largely due to the wider availability of the cheaper machine.
Perhaps more gratifying than the sales figures alone is the growing user feedback, which shows the appreciation of the benefits of the format exceeding expectations. This is encouraging studios to push ahead with plans to implement more sophisticated interactive HD DVD projects for 2007.

nictry

26-08-2006, 18:29

I take it you have? ;)

Well I have and although I only have 4 HD-DVDs at the moment I can tell you that anyone (and I mean anyone including non AV Geek types) would be lying if they said that they could not see a noticable difference in PQ between an SD DVD (upscaled or not) and a HD-DVD. I paid £250 for my Tosh A-1 and at the moment think it is the best money I have yet spent on AV equipment it blows away anyone that sees it running :thumbs:

Yes the risk is there that BR will win 'the war' or HD just doesn't cut it (although I think this is probably unlikely) the discs are already available for around £11 each so actually undercutting some normal DVD releases so right now I think it has a great chance of persuading a lot of joe public that it is worth the investment/upgrade to really make the most of their shiny new HD ready TV sets!

Spectre07

26-08-2006, 20:16

Well I have and although I only have 4 HD-DVDs at the moment I can tell you that anyone (and I mean anyone including non AV Geek types) would be lying if they said that they could not see a noticable difference in PQ between an SD DVD (upscaled or not) and a HD-DVD.The thing is, it's not a big enough difference to make joe public rush out and buy into it.

nictry

26-08-2006, 20:56

The thing is, it's not a big enough difference to make joe public rush out and buy into it.

Agreed due to the grief of importing or going to the US to get a player :eek: However if they price right when they are released in the UK next month then I think the interest levels will rise, if they get some decent movies out in HD eg top sellers like SW, Matrix, LOTR etc. then I think the format will get bought up quickly :clap:

thescrounger

26-08-2006, 21:19

However if they price right when they are released in the UK next month then I think the interest levels will rise, if they get some decent movies out in HD eg top sellers like SW, Matrix, LOTR etc. then I think the format will get bought up quickly :clap:

Entirely dependant on places like HMV, Virgin and WHS having an HD-DVD display running of course.

Spectre07

26-08-2006, 22:53

Agreed due to the grief of importing or going to the US to get a player :eek:That's not the issue.

Assume Joe Public is convinced enough that HD pq is better than SD that he wants to buy a HDDVD. You put a LOTR DVD and LOTR HDDVD, both priced the same, in front of him. You tell him he can't play the HDDVD on his DVD player and the HDDVD is staying on the shelf. He's not going to chuck out a perfectly good DVD player, rush out and spend money on a HD player.

Boink!

27-08-2006, 05:34

Especially if he's got a normal TV set that won't show the extra detail or sound quality.

nictry

27-08-2006, 08:07

Especially if he's got a normal TV set that won't show the extra detail or sound quality.

Again agreed although most new TVs will be HD so as TVs wear out and get replaced the majority will buy an HD tv. Also re the HD DVD players, 50000 people in the US have already gone and spent some cash on a player (and I guess a fair few in the UK have too) Look how many people have spent £300 + £10 per month on Sky HD which TBH I think is a total waste of money bearing in mind the limited choice of programming, I spent £250 on a DVD player (albeit with a limited range of DVDs at the moment) but that's not much more than an average SD DVD player, and a lot less than a decent SD DVD player, Arcams, Denons etc. at £500-£1500)

I'm not saying HD-DVD is a dead cert and it could well fail but I doubt it, I would argue that 5 years ago no-one would ever have thought the major electronics retailers would stop selling VCRs but most have now done so!

I heard last week Dixons are phasing out normal radios and only selling DAB versions!

Technology moves on (whether you like it or not) the fact HD-DVD players are backwards compatible with standard DVDs means when you come to replace your old DVD player and someone shows you two DVDs being played side by side an HD and a SD and the price difference is not huge I would bet most people will start buying the HD one, just my opinion but lets see what happens in the next 12-18 months :thinking:

DeadKenny

27-08-2006, 08:47

I heard last week Dixons are phasing out normal radios and only selling DAB versions!
Which is nuts as DAB still isn't that popular from what I can tell. The majority audience for DAB seems to be old folks, or at least that's who they seem to be targeting if you look at the designs of the radios.

There's still a lack of DAB A/V receivers and decent car DAB radios.

Not to mention a lack of DAB reception around the country.

Personally I think FM will continue for a long time as most people have no need to buy a new radio, and those who want new technology will get Internet radio gadgets which are superior to FM potentially (e.g. Squeezebox has impressive internet radio capability and quality, so much so that I'm not going to bother with DAB).

nictry

27-08-2006, 08:58

Which is nuts as DAB still isn't that popular from what I can tell. The majority audience for DAB seems to be old folks, or at least that's who they seem to be targeting if you look at the designs of the radios.

There's still a lack of DAB A/V receivers and decent car DAB radios.

Not to mention a lack of DAB reception around the country.

Personally I think FM will continue for a long time as most people have no need to buy a new radio, and those who want new technology will get Internet radio gadgets which are superior to FM potentially (e.g. Squeezebox has impressive internet radio capability and quality, so much so that I'm not going to bother with DAB).

Totally agree and I can't get reception, also my freeview is terrible too, this is however my point that these decisions are being taken without people even being able to get the new products, HD-DVD (and Bluray) may be run concurrently with SD DVD but how long into the future will they be the only option :thinking:

thescrounger

27-08-2006, 13:03

Assume Joe Public is convinced enough that HD pq is better than SD that he wants to buy a HDDVD. You put a LOTR DVD and LOTR HDDVD, both priced the same, in front of him. You tell him he can't play the HDDVD on his DVD player and the HDDVD is staying on the shelf. He's not going to chuck out a perfectly good DVD player, rush out and spend money on a HD player.

This is a good point, and one I can relate to. Seeing as though I had a DVD player from early 1999, I still bought the odd VHS tape up until early 2001. As I could watch it in more places than just the living room at home (I was a student at the time and not based in one place).

When I buy a DVD, I like that I can watch it anywhere, anyroom and even on the move on a portable DVD player.

If HD-DVD discs over here are released with a DVD version included as well, like the US, they will be onto a winner. If not I can see it being a slower uptake.

fishybob

27-08-2006, 16:32

Excellent dicussion as ever guys, here's my take on it...

basically, i'm a tight-wad so dont tend to replace things until they need it, and also dont believe in "early adoption" so will probably wait until;
1. a my nice 28" Panny widscreen dies (still have a year on the warranty!) and i get a HD LCD replacement.
2. and my dvd recorder dies and decent HD-DVD players are around £150.
Even then, if theres a whiff of a decent VOD system in the pipeline I'll probably hold off. I like DVD's and love movies so have around 200, but if i could access all the movies i wanted for a reasonable subscription i would go for it. There are some pretty good Music subscription services already, so i think its not far around the corner.
Anyway maybe thats for the VOD Forums!

joconnor

27-08-2006, 17:41

nictry

27-08-2006, 18:15

The format wars are what will kill the next gen HD discs from taking off. If there was one format I think people would adopt it and it would have slowly phased out DVD.

But a lot of people who would have been early adopters, like me, are holding back until there is a 'winner'

With fewer early adopters both formats have a slim chance of taking over in my opinion.

IMO and despite of my post earlier on gradual 'retirement' of older products I think that HD products may supplement DVDs for some time yet, probably 5-10 years as the lifecycle of standard DVDs, based upon the fact most studios will only release older films on an ad-hoc basis, will be for a while yet.

I also agree that with format wars it is inevitable that it will take longer for a 'winner' to emerge, having said that I think as prices fall in the same way a lot of people have a DVD player and a DVD recorder we may find people buying a HD and a BR player (unless they make a dual one in the future :D )

nictry

27-08-2006, 18:17

If HD-DVD discs over here are released with a DVD version included as well, like the US, they will be onto a winner. If not I can see it being a slower uptake.

Don't forget though that the dual discs lose either goodies or PQ (will be interesting to see what happens with longer films released in this format (King Kong should be the first test) as to whether they can continue to release the double discs and still keep the new HD watchers happy :thinking:

Spectre07

28-08-2006, 18:25

The reason I don't think HD discs are going to take off in any significant numbers is this...Compact Cassettes. I saw my first Walkman in 1980 and by 1985 everyone had a personal stereo and everyone listened to music on the go via Compact Cassettes. Then in the mid 80's came Digital Audio Tape a far superior recording medium to CC. DAT didn't take off despite offering perfect digital copies. It just didn't offer enough advantages over cassette to warrant the upgrade. CC was cheaper and more widely available and you didn't have to buy another player. Just as a footnote we also saw the arrival of the Discman, allowing you to use the superior medium of CD to listen to music on the go. I don't think that was as popular as CC, I don't know anyone who bought a CD personal stereo. Again it didn't offer enough advantages over cassette to warrant the upgrade, at least for listening to music on the move. It wasn't until minidisc came along, allowing you to record your own tracks that people started to ditch their cassette players. I think DVD is the new CC and HD discs is DAT.

AndyWilson

28-08-2006, 21:38

Probably more relevant was DCC. It was backwardly compatible, a DCC player would play standard cassettes, recordable from the outset, and the sound quality was meant to be much better than cassette. People didn't care though - cassette was "good enough" for most people. So good in fact, that the "replacement" recordable media, minidisc (launched at about the same time as DCC) took a decade to become mainstream, and when it did it was quickly killed off by CDR and MP3 players.

Tempest

28-08-2006, 22:00

Remember Sony's typical Minidisc launch the 1st time around.

Being typical Sony (think they knew best - Again!)

Mini Disk players were stupidly expensive (£500 were they?) at the 1st launch.
I recall my mate saying how great they were going to be.
I told him they were too dam expensive and they'd only get anywhere if they dropped the price down to actually get a LOT of players into peoples pockets.

Time went on, and it seemed the mini disc pretty much died untill there was a kind or second coming launch. This time as more resonable (albeit still quite a bit) prices.

This time, it has a moderate amount of success with people who were "Into" music on the move. But it was all really too late.

they cocked it up 1st time around, and by the time it was picking up (years later) we had MP3 players emerging.

Have Sony learned this time around?

Errrrrrrrrr. Of course not, they are SONY.

Jebus, how many times do you have to hit their heads with a plank of wood to get thru to them, you need to get players (or any type) into homes, fast.
Then you make money on the software (be it movies, games, music)

Or just sit there, thinking you are so wonderful that you will win, because you are the best, and it's the customers that are wrong in not buying your superiour(sp) expensive offering.

Funny really.

roddy22

28-08-2006, 22:22

you forgot to mention Sony's stuborness to suport Mp3 when they were releasing their digital music players. They forced you to use awful software to load on their Atrac format. They do make sexy bits of electronics but they push their own formats like nothing on Earth. I don't think Ipod's would be as popular if they didn't support Mp3 when they first came out. Might be slightly different now with legit online music stores.

thescrounger

28-08-2006, 23:46

you forgot to mention Sony's stuborness to suport Mp3 when they were releasing their digital music players. They forced you to use awful software to load on their Atrac format.

Also, when they finally did support MP3 they stifled its playback quality so that it sounded better once you'd converted it to ATRAC.

kiran_mk2

28-08-2006, 23:56

Don't forget that SACDs first came out in 1999. Like minidisc, I think Sony charged far too much to licence the technology, so the only players were made by Sony meaning they oculd charge what they wanted for them.

In some sense, nextgen discs should fail - the advantages DVDs offered to the public were: better picture quality that you could see on you current TV (especially after watching stuff loads), connected by leads you were familiar with (composite or scart), offered a load of special features and possible most importantly it came in the form of a disc that we were familiar with complete with instant scene access.
Of course, the industry wants us to adopt because DVDs were cracked a long time ago, so they may start holding back DVD releases until after the HD versions have been released.

Sprout Crumble

29-08-2006, 00:20

Sony's problem all round has been an unwillingness to bite the bullet and price to the bone, instead relying on a name that has for some time now been losing its power.

They're also a greedy, monopolistic company who've done considerable damage to consumer confidence in many areas.

How many formats have they introduced, yet failed to support strongly? The list is bloody endless. Even today we have endless Memory stick variants when they offer nothing over the rival, open, Secure Digital format. Its a Sony only product thats probably cost them sales. Likewise Blu-Ray. The DVD Forum (no relation) settled on HD-DVD, with its logical name, ease of manufacture, compatibilty with previous formats and integrated marketing. Not good enough for Sony....again. Result; everybody loses money and the whole thing is put in jeopardy.

I often think Sony would rather destroy a market they can't dominate. Scum company.

Rant over.

P.S. I think the dual format DVD/HD-DVD discs are flippers. Great idea and the possible killer app for the format if made a standard feature on new releases. Who wouldn't buy the dual disc for another dollar?

JamesK

29-08-2006, 06:06

Looking an import website that sells the DVD and the flipper HD-DVD/DVD release, it's £10 more, rather than just an extra dollar...

Spectre07

29-08-2006, 11:16

Of course, the industry wants us to adopt because DVDs were cracked a long time ago, so they may start holding back DVD releases until after the HD versions have been released.I don't think that will happen as

1. It'll affect their revenue, they'll be losing more DVD sales than gaining HD disc sales.

2. A staggered release between SD and HD discs may encourage the take up of the new formats but the film studios will be more worried it'll encourage piracy.

kiran_mk2

29-08-2006, 12:15

I don't think that will happen as

1. It'll affect their revenue, they'll be losing more DVD sales than gaining HD disc sales.

2. A staggered release between SD and HD discs may encourage the take up of the new formats but the film studios will be more worried it'll encourage piracy.

They did it with DVDs - I remember as far back as 1999, I was waiting for Cruel Intentions on vhs and it didn't appear until 6 months after the DVD.

danielsesay

29-08-2006, 14:12

Remember Sony's typical Minidisc launch the 1st time around.

Being typical Sony (think they knew best - Again!)

Mini Disk players were stupidly expensive (£500 were they?) at the 1st launch.
I recall my mate saying how great they were going to be.
I told him they were too dam expensive and they'd only get anywhere if they dropped the price down to actually get a LOT of players into peoples pockets.

Time went on, and it seemed the mini disc pretty much died untill there was a kind or second coming launch. This time as more resonable (albeit still quite a bit) prices.

This time, it has a moderate amount of success with people who were "Into" music on the move. But it was all really too late.

they cocked it up 1st time around, and by the time it was picking up (years later) we had MP3 players emerging.IIRC, Mindisc had moderate success because Sony allowed other manufacturers to make recorders/players and discs. This drove prices down. If they did this from the beginning then Minidisc would've replaced cassette tapes a lot sooner. It's a shame because mindisc was and still is a great durable format.

For the record I own an MD deck and a portable player (both Sony) - both have served me well. The deck was great for recording radio programmes off of satellite and the internet. The ability to create individual tracks on continous recordings, edit out stuff I didn't want and shuffle things around is what attracted me to MD.

But anyway this is going way off topic!

On the HD-DVD/BR format war - I reckon HD-DVD will come out on top. Backwards compatability will play a huge part in who wins - and HD-DVD seems to offer this (unless BR does this as well!).

JamesK

29-08-2006, 14:47

They did it with DVDs - I remember as far back as 1999, I was waiting for Cruel Intentions on vhs and it didn't appear until 6 months after the DVD.

:suspect: I rmeember getting alll excited about 'day and date' releases where the DVD came out at the same time as the video. :nuts:

Spectre07

29-08-2006, 15:12

They did it with DVDs - I remember as far back as 1999, I was waiting for Cruel Intentions on vhs and it didn't appear until 6 months after the DVD.The market was different for VHS, you had the theatrical release, then a window for rental and finally 'sell thru'. We don't have that any more. Also the ownership of pre-recorded tape was never as big as DVD is today.

Woz

29-08-2006, 23:59

People seem to forget that the general public are willing to accept 'good enough' quality when it's cheaper/more convenient than 'ultra quality'.

Look at music - DVD Audio has died on its arse, where MP3 has boomed beyond anyone's expectations.

I don't see too much future in HD disc formats - we're more likely to see it going the way of MP3 with movie studios distributing protected HD media over sat or the internet and the general public 'aquiring' HD content from other sources in parallel with this.

The days of physical media are numbered.

R-T-C

30-08-2006, 08:57

The days of physical media are numbered.

Personally, I don't think so. Half the fun with DVDs is their flexibility - downloaded/on-demand services supplied direct to your TV cannot:

1) Be lent to friends
2) Be watched on a laptop while on a train
3) Be sold/traded
4) Look impressive on a shelf
5) Come with fancy packaging/collectors items
6) Be imported from overseas - you'll be limited to your own region/country.

Spectre07

30-08-2006, 09:22

SimonI

31-08-2006, 11:05

Nicely put :thumbs:

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 12:25

The days of physical media are numbered.

How can it possibly be with the amount of money it rakes in? Explain please.

Grandmaster

31-08-2006, 12:33

That's right, man is a hunter/gatherer with the emphasis on gathering. We love building our collections records, CD's DVD's, we love the covers, looking at the pretty pictures on the front and reading thru the list of contents or track listings at the back. It's an important part of the watching or listening process. When I listen to a CD the case is never out of my hand.

So how come we've had a number one single on the basis of downloads alone? How come iTunes is so absolutely massive? Why is it that everyone who sees my movie collection on my MCE media PC connected to my plasma is so on awe of having hundreds of movies instantly on tap?

While there will always be collectors, most people are not movie collectors, just as most people are not music collectors. There will always be a place for physical media of course, but it's inevitable that downloads will be cheaper and more immediate and that's why it's only a matter of time before movies follow the path trailblazed by MP3.

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 12:43

While there will always be collectors, most people are not movie collectors, just as most people are not music collectors. There will always be a place for physical media of course, but it's inevitable that downloads will be cheaper and more immediate and that's why it's only a matter of time before movies follow the path trailblazed by MP3.

HD movies? What about bandwidth. I'm not convinced you'll get the same level of quality in a movie DL as you would in something that comes on a disc.

I think the market for music and movies are quite different from each other.

Why is it that everyone who sees my movie collection on my MCE media PC connected to my plasma is so on awe of having hundreds of movies instantly on tap?

They might be in awe of it, but how many people actually have it? Or would have the patience and technical know how to set it up and organise it. I think most people are more than happy to have their movies sitting on a shelf 3 feet away. That way even granny can watch what she wants.

Grandmaster

31-08-2006, 12:50

Firstly, as Warren stated, only movie collectors might actually *want* HD. Secondly, movies could be downloaded as a progressive 960x540 image and the quality wouldn't be a million miles away from the HD performance most people would get any way on their non-1080p displays.

Thirdly - true story this - the internet rights for the Bundesliga football in Germany were sold for 10% of the value of the TV rights. I think it's BSkyB that have bought the internet rights and are essentially spending a fair amount of the colossal amounts of money they saved by upgrading internet infrastructure and using the internet as a video delivery system instead.

And - oh yeah - what do I see? BSkyB in the UK getting in on the internet act too... it's all this sort of manoevring that convinces me that "IP-TV" if you will is the future.

As I said, physical media will always have its place with collectors, but IMO HD will be fighting a losing battle against internet downloads and good old 'normal' DVD in the mainstream market...

They might be in awe of it, but how many people actually have it? Or would have the patience and technical know how to set it up and organise it. I think most people are more than happy to have their movies sitting on a shelf 3 feet away. That way even granny can watch what she wants.

A set-top box is far more immediate and would do the same job. Why spend hundreds/thousands of pounds on a physical media collection when with one monthly sub I have access to everything?

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 12:53

A set-top box is far more immediate and would do the same job.

What happens if I want to watch a film on my portable DVD player?

Sorry but I'm just not seeing how having everything stuck in one box is much of an advantage. It's too virtual. How can I sell a film on ebay if I don't want it any more?

Grandmaster

31-08-2006, 13:30

With regards eBay, well - in my scenario you wouldn't be shelling out massive amounts of money on a big disk collection any way.

Let's face facts - it's only collectors that watch the same movie over and over again, and it's only collectors that actually get their money's worth from DVDs. Or do they? You can buy as many DVDs are you want, but you still only have a finite amount of time in which to watch them. I have hundreds of DVDs yet many I've only watched once, many I only bought for the extras, and a fair few I've not even watched yet.

With regards your portable DVD scenario, as I said, physical media will obviously still have its uses, but I can't help but think you're clutching at straws with that one ;) Regardless, technology will fill the gap. Are you still wandering about with a portable CD player and a stack of CDs in your bag?

My original point is that HD's chances of success will be challenged by competing delivery systems that are far more in tune with the average person's lifestyle, needs and equipment level.

ROne

31-08-2006, 14:54

Echo some of the sentiment in this thread.

I think it's all too much to soon, I don't think the mainstream is ready to lap up HD full stop in the medium term.

As a producer, I feel HD has a purpose for aquisition - that is in no doubt, but its mainstream delivery is way, way overcooked.

It's gonna come back later in a different guise I think.

This is my hunch anyway. Of course the big players might force a situation, but the consumer will vote with their feet ultimately.

KRW

31-08-2006, 15:01

The days of physical media might be numbered, but I doubt it'll happen in our lifetime.

KRW

31-08-2006, 15:03

1) Be lent to friends
2) Be watched on a laptop while on a train
3) Be sold/traded
4) Look impressive on a shelf
5) Come with fancy packaging/collectors items
6) Be imported from overseas - you'll be limited to your own region/country.

7) be given away free in newspapers.
8) You don't lose your collection when your hardrive dies.

SimonI

31-08-2006, 15:08

As I said, physical media will always have its place with collectors, but IMO HD will be fighting a losing battle against internet downloads and good old 'normal' DVD in the mainstream market... As a collector I want to have the physical media and that's why I'm hopping keen to get into HD-DVD or BR asap... but I suspect you're right in saying that for the majority of punters VOD will be the thing; think of it simply as DIY television.

On the other hand, the DVD is a great gift idea - I wonder what proportion of sales are for Xmas or birthday presents? Bit more difficult to give someone a virtual film... unless they come up with something akin to magazine subs. That'll be class... or not :thinking:

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 15:57

Re: VOD, Has SKY box office really taken off at all? it's been around for at least 5 years and it hasn't crippled the rental or physical media market at all.

Spectre07

31-08-2006, 17:49

How come iTunes is so absolutely massive? MP3.I've had an MP3 player for 3 years but my CD collection has still grown in that time. In fact, last year I bought more CD's in a single year than I've ever done since I was a student.

Regardless, technology will fill the gap. Are you still wandering about with a portable CD player and a stack of CDs in your bag?
As you say technology fills the gap and I no longer have a bag full of cassettes but listen to my MP3 player (as I wonder around, for example, HMV buying CD's ;) )

So how come we've had a number one single on the basis of downloads alone?.When the Beatles were no 1 they had to sell records in the millions to get there. Today you only have to get your immediate family to buy your single to get to no 1. ;)

Grandmaster

31-08-2006, 18:01

Re: VOD, Has SKY box office really taken off at all? it's been around for at least 5 years and it hasn't crippled the rental or physical media market at all.

It is not designed to take on the rental or physical market, is it? The movies are out of date by comparison, the choice is limited, and it's too pricey.

Also it is not Video on Demand.

Grandmaster

31-08-2006, 18:07

I've had an MP3 player for 3 years but my CD collection has still grown in that time. In fact, last year I bought more CD's in a single year than I've ever done since I was a student.

Good for you, but CD sales are declining overall, are they not?

As you say technology fills the gap and I no longer have a bag full of cassettes but listen to my MP3 player (as I wonder around, for example, HMV buying CD's ;) )

We are moving towards a DRM world. I can well imagine that there will be managed content protection to allow for watching movies on the go. HD-DVD already has managed copying built-in to its spec.

Let's say you buy the rights to view a movie - that means you can stream it to your TV, or plug your 10th gen iPod into the STB and take the video away for portable viewing on devices paired to the STB.

When the Beatles were no 1 they had to sell records in the millions to get there. Today you only have to get your immediate family to buy your single to get to no 1. ;)

Are you simply proving my point that the physical media delivery is dying? Am I correct in saying that album sales too are declining? Is the same true of iTunes? I think not.

R-T-C

31-08-2006, 19:48

A major, unaddressed problem that I think will kill VoD/download services before they even start is the fact that any service will be country specific, so we will be stuck with films released in the UK only. Although this is fine for Hollywood fans, at least a quarter of my film collection is of cult films imported from the USA/Far East/Europe and not available in the UK and we would lose the ability to see these films.

Certainly not a big plus for us movie-fans who would probably need to be the first to buy such a system if it was to suceed.

DeadKenny

31-08-2006, 21:02

How come iTunes is so absolutely massive?
Because of the iPod, and that's so popular purely because of very very good marketing and product design.

The vast majority of people buy iPods because it's a style item. There are a lot of people who really don't understand mp3s, but buy iPods and download music via iTunes (which are not MP3s) and really don't know what they're doing but it looks cool, sounds great and works flawlessly even though there are superior non-Apple players on the market that don't use iTunes.

iTunes itself is nothing special.

The people buying this stuff don't even realise the downloads are inferior to CDs (and that's saying something given the quality of CDs isn't that great anyway). For me a key reason to stick to a physical product is (apart from no DRM) the quality is better than the DRM protected download options and it's cheaper, plus you get a box and booklet!

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 21:54

Good for you, but CD sales are declining overall, are they not?

CD sales and legal download sales might be declining, or they have been in recent years, but due only to piracy. The whole DL phenomenon, has not suprisingly increased the piracy trade.

Spectre07

31-08-2006, 22:26

Are you simply proving my point that the physical media delivery is dying? No the physical medium isn't dying. The reason less singles are sold today is because kids, who are the biggest purchasers of singles, have many other things to spend their money on.

Am I correct in saying that album sales too are declining? Is the same true of iTunes? I think not.Every product has a life cycle, the ipod is on the ascension, CD's have been around for decades, the music companies back catalogues have probably been bought up by now, for example I've got all the Beatles albums on CD , I don't want to buy another set. New albums by the Beatles don't come along too often and many new artists are fighting with Halo 3, Cinema tickets, ten pin bowling etc.

thescrounger

31-08-2006, 22:35

Yep, 20 years ago there wasn't much else to do but play records or go to the cinema. You couldn't buy a pirated LP either. (at least I don't think so).

KRW

01-09-2006, 09:43

I can't understand this rush to condemn the idea of physical media. It's like the 'paperless office' of the 80's all over again - by the year 2000, no office in the land would have any paper at all. I was actually taught that at school.

There is a place for downloads, and there is also a place for the physical media. One will not kill the other off. People will always like to buy actual things. People will download films to watch and if they like them, they'll go out and buy the 3-disc version of it with gatefold sleeves and stuff.

DeadKenny

02-09-2006, 10:45

CD sales and legal download sales might be declining, or they have been in recent years, but due only to piracy. The whole DL phenomenon, has not suprisingly increased the piracy trade.
That's what the industry claims. As I understood it though legal download sales are on the increase and overtaking CD sales.

If piracy is the cause it shows that the average consumer really doesn't give a stuff about quality because 90% of dodgy downloads are badly ripped and badly encoded rubbish. Also one problem with MP3 downloads is that they concentrate purely on individual tracks not albums. It's very hard to get a consistent album download and even if you do because they've been ripped so bad the track numbers are all wrong.

Legal downloads are more consistent but they are poor encodings.

Hence why I buy the original CD and rip it properly now to a lossless format (which I should add is essentially legally consented now thanks to the BPI saying it's okay for consumers to rip their own CDs for personal use :thumbs: ).

thescrounger

02-09-2006, 12:25

That's what the industry claims. As I understood it though legal download sales are on the increase and overtaking CD sales.

Any links to news items on this?

Dack

02-09-2006, 13:13

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/09/15/oz_sales_fall/

And interestingly one of the reasons given is that they release less titles per year.

thescrounger

02-09-2006, 13:23

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/09/15/oz_sales_fall/

And interestingly one of the reasons given is that they release less titles per year.

That's only talking about the Austrailian market (which as of the date of the article) don't even have iTunes yet. Lack of sales was due to lack of available product, rather than because they were downloading. Interestingly it did say that DVD sales were thriving:

"When consumers can’t find the CDs they look for other content like games or DVD films, which continue to sell heavily".

DeadKenny

02-09-2006, 13:30

Any links to news items on this?
Actually I was thinking of singles which is where (legal) downloads have outstripped the physical product.

Still, the point is more that download sales are on the increase, not declining and are boosting profits all the time despite claims of piracy hitting sales.

e.g. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4925696.stm

12% rise in profits even considering any potential decline in CD sales, and yet they claim all this piracy is killing the industry... hmm :suspect:

R-T-C

02-09-2006, 13:55

I don't think this has much to do with DVD formats. A single is a minute's download and goes straight to your audio player, it is far simpler than ripping the file from a CD. To download a film you'd need a good few hours of downloading (possibly a few days if you want HD quality footage), and a high bandwidth provider, and unless you are one of the few people who watch films on their computer, you would also need to have an HD-DVD burner (it was only in the last two years that SD-DVD burners have become standard on a PC, and DVD has been around for years). HD-VoD direct to your TV over the internet would need absurdly fast connections (unless you choose which film you want to watch a few hours in advance) and a whole new selection of set-top boxes. While it is easier to have a single in MP3 format, having a film as a DVD is far simpler than messing around burning formats or downloading films onto a set-top box.

Summary - market for music and market for films is not the same. People download music because it is easier, downloading a film is going to be a long process and thus have no advantages over a DVD.