View Full Version : Share Markets - Barking Mad ?!
DVDWotcha
24-10-2008, 10:25
Shares plummet on recession fears
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7688202.stm
FTSE100 down 8% today.
But what planet are these people on ? It's been blatantly clear for some time we're going into recession so why another panic ?
Are they seriously just waiting for comfirmation of what we already know to be true ?
Bonkers :cuckoo:
BigJonnyB
24-10-2008, 10:27
The output fall was quite a lot larger than most economists expected (0.5% against 0.2%)...this obviously sets things off again.
JB
People must be still stashing their savings (whatevers left) in cash awaiting for this market to find its bottom, think it dipped to 3500 on the FTSE in the 02/03 crash.
Jebus, it's taking an absolute pounding today.
pyrogena
24-10-2008, 12:10
I know it wouldn't happen (well, I bloody hope not), but just how low can the FTSE go?? Can it hit zero and effectively then go into negative equity?
Cannot go negative, and it will not go too low as it would destroy the country if it stopped being one of the worlds primary markets.
Personally, I feel we are near the bottom. I just wish I had more disposable income to invest right now, as in 18 months time people will be looking back at the share prices right now saying 'if only' as where there is a trough, there is a peak to follow.
Nah, keep your powder dry folks !
Someone here on a different thread mentioned one broker who advised her clients not to get back in until the 3000 mark.
3000 might be a bit optimistic as a low, but 3200/3300 represents a good buying point.
I wonder what the forecast GDP drop will be for Q4?
FTSE 100 chart since 1984 (presume this was when the index was created):
http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/651/90079813ja9.th.png (http://img371.imageshack.us/my.php?image=90079813ja9.png)http://img371.imageshack.us/images/thpix.gif (http://g.imageshack.us/thpix.php)
Ahh, a new version of the classic "Twin Peaks".
One down to the dotcom bubble.
One down to the credit bubble.
Interesting when you see it like that, thanks njc.
Grandmaster
24-10-2008, 13:56
Surprised that the banking shares are still suffering bearing in mind the bail-out.
Nah, keep your powder dry folks !
Someone here on a different thread mentioned one broker who advised her clients not to get back in until the 3000 mark.
3000 might be a bit optimistic as a low, but 3200/3300 represents a good buying point.
I wonder what the forecast GDP drop will be for Q4?
3k is exactly what I have heard as the 'rock bottom' and I have been advised to wait until then and then buy buy buy!:thumbs:
The FTSE100 graph isn't kind to New Labour, is it?
Born2Bwild
24-10-2008, 17:20
3k is exactly what I have heard as the 'rock bottom' and I have been advised to wait until then and then buy buy buy!:thumbs:
If enough people/brokers think this, then it will happen.
farmroad38
24-10-2008, 19:14
Nah, keep your powder dry folks !
Someone here on a different thread mentioned one broker who advised her clients not to get back in until the 3000 mark.
3000 might be a bit optimistic as a low, but 3200/3300 represents a good buying point.
I wonder what the forecast GDP drop will be for Q4?
That was me, quoting Nicola Horlick. I believe that what she said was that the FTSE would drop to around 3000 by the end of the year, but that she was advising clients to stay away from stocks for the next 2-3 years!
Thanks for that then farmroad :)
It's easy to panick, and think the market had been recovering in the last few weeks.
The wiser long term investor will be cherry picking and buying through this period anyway.
I'm interested to understand her 2-3 year issue though. I personally think there will be a move back to shares with good yields, moving away from the growth only phenomenon of recent years. Utilities will have to return 7% long term to their shareholders to sustain the levels of investment they need.
farmroad38
25-10-2008, 10:13
I'm afraid I can't remember what her reasoning was - I think it was an article in either the Times or Telegraph?
Still a bit to early to buy as the market isn't anywhere near bottoming. Banks will be the first to pick up, followed by energy/mining a few months later.
Expecting banking to take another hit shortly with fruther writedowns and Hedge funds fall. Good time to buy shares coming up though in the next few months/year.
Still a bit to early to buy as the market isn't anywhere near bottoming. Banks will be the first to pick up, followed by energy/mining a few months later.
Expecting banking to take another hit shortly with fruther writedowns and Hedge funds fall. Good time to buy shares coming up though in the next few months/year.
You say that pretty confidently, yet it's fair to say you're guessing as much as the next man? If anyone had a clue where the bottom was, the market would be a lot more stable. It's the complete uncertainty that's driving the footsie through the floor.
RobDickinson
28-10-2008, 00:19
The panic is because the UK /gov debt is 180-200% of GDP and theres some very very big companies with debts there going to strugle to service or renew soon too.
Born2Bwild
28-10-2008, 00:37
The panic is because the UK /gov debt is 180-200% of GDP and theres some very very big companies with debts there going to strugle to service or renew soon too.
2007 figures (In US$)
Public debt $864 billion (2007)
GDP $2.772 trillion (2007 est.)
I make that 31%, not 180-200%
RobDickinson
28-10-2008, 00:55
Thats old data, UK/gov has borrowed a lot moer recently, and is hiding a ton in things like PFI. Admitedly 180-200% is probably worst case scenario but it could well be getting close.
Its a position Japan was in a decade ago and they havnt dug themselves out of before this latest storm hit.
Born2Bwild
28-10-2008, 01:04
Thats old data, UK/gov has borrowed a lot moer recently, and is hiding a ton in things like PFI. Admitedly 180-200% is probably worst case scenario but it could well be getting close.
Its a position Japan was in a decade ago and they havnt dug themselves out of before this latest storm hit.
Granted its old, but only 10 months old. Based on your figures the UK debt is $5trillion
RobDickinson
28-10-2008, 02:19
Public borrowing will easily exceed 40% of GDP this year and theres at least that much hidden in PFi etc.
2008 GDP is about £1.4t, central borrowing will be around £600billion minimum without all the hidden stuff.
and GB has 18months to borrow more....
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